AI venture returns, 2024 to 2026

Early money made 100x to 4,000x on paper. Late money is making 1x to 3x.

What the first priced round investors in today's AI leaders marked up, against what capital entering at scale has earned since. The gap between the two is not luck. It is access, and it is timing.

4,043x
Largest paper multiple

Databricks' 2013 Series A, marked against a $190B valuation in 2026.

~$12.5B
Largest realized position

A $50M CoreWeave stake after the 2025 IPO, roughly 250x.

~2.3x
Aggregate institutional return

Across $27B of cost in OpenAI at $852B. The same math as most late entries.

First priced round to latest valuation

Gross valuation step up, log scale. A ceiling for the earliest investors, not a fund level return.

Databricks4,043x
2013 Series A to a $190B valuation, 2026
Anthropic1,142x
2021 Series A to $965B, 2026
Cerebras~950x
2016 to a ~$95B IPO, 2026
CoreWeave~950x
2019 seed to IPO, 2025
OpenAI852x
$1B in 2019 to $852B, 2026
Cursor~150x
2024 Series A to a $60B sale, 2026
Cognition~137x
2024 Series A to $48B, 2026
ElevenLabs~111x
2023 Series A to $11B, 2026
Mistral~88x
2023 seed to over 21B euro, 2026
What late stage entrants have made so far

Entry post money to latest mark. Rounds since mid 2025 cluster at 1.0x to 2.3x.

Anthropic, Series Eentered Mar 2025
15.7x
OpenAI, Thrive ledentered Oct 2024
5.4x
OpenAI, Dec 2025entered Dec 2025
~3.0x
Anthropic, Series Gentered Feb 2026
2.3x
Cursor, Series Dentered Nov 2025
~2.05x
Databricks, Series Lentered Dec 2025
1.42x
Statsig, Series Cflat in four months
1.0x
Access, not capital, is the edge

In today's market the largest tenders sell only two thirds of what is authorized, and most secondary volume sits in a handful of names. The constraint is not money. It is a seat at the table.

Our network has provided access to generational companies including SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and Reflection AI. That access is why our members see allocations that are never offered in a public round.

SpaceXOpenAIAnthropicReflection AI
By invitation

Solera is a private membership. If a member has referred you, complete your registration. Otherwise, write to us and tell us plainly why there is a fit.

Figures are third party market data compiled from public sources as at September 2026. Multiples are gross valuation step ups, pre dilution and pre fees, and overstate what any single investor booked. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Nothing here is an offer to buy or sell securities.